It’s good to
see the House of Commons Justice Committee asking the government tough
questions about the controversial Courts and Tribunals Bill. The Committee has
issued a
call for evidence to inform its scrutiny of the Bill and has already engaged
the Lord Chancellor about the likely impacts of the legislation, including on
the prison population.
Diverting more
cases into the Magistrates Courts will reduce periods spent by defendants
remanded in custody, and demand for jail places. But the resulting space
freed up in the Crown Courts will accelerate the sentencing of defendants on
bail charged with complex and serious crimes; those who get custodial terms will
do so sooner than they otherwise would, upping pressure on prisons.
The government’s
impact
assessment (IA) published alongside the Bill last week estimates the net
effect will be an increase of 900 in prison numbers by 2033 before they
gradually start to fall. It’s not a huge amount but neither is it negligible,
given that the IA accounts for the measures in the Sentencing Act 2026, which
introduces a presumption to suspend short custodial sentences, expands
community-based alternatives, and increases electronic monitoring. The Ministry
of Justice will need to revise its central
estimate of a prison population of 95,900 in 2032 in the light of the new
Bill’s impacts.
They may
also want to look a bit more closely at the likely effects of extending Magistrates
Courts sentencing powers so that cases that would otherwise be sent to the
Crown Court can be retained in the magistrates’ courts for hearing and
sentencing. The Bill allows for Magistrates sentencing powers to go up to 18
months or 24 months maximum imprisonment for single and multiple triable
either-way offences.
In assessing
the impact this might have on prison numbers, the IA assumes that sentencing
behaviour will be the same in both Magistrates and Crown Courts. But Lord
Chancellor David Lammy has told the Justice
Committee that the increase to Magistrates Sentencing powers from
6 to 12 months in 2022-3 “had a short-term inflationary impact on the prison
population”. It’s surprising that the IA doesn’t flag this at least as a potential
risk this time round. If it comes to pass, the 900 estimate may be too low.
On the other
hand, there may be an opportunity to limit the upward impact on prison numbers
brought about by accelerated sentencing in the freed up Crown Court. The IA
says that where bailed defendants enter the prison estate more quickly, there
may be a public protection benefit for society through reduced potential of
further reoffending and or victimisation. It asserts that “moving convicted
people into prison removes potentially dangerous individuals from society which
brings the benefits of safer communities”.
Equally for many
of those defendants who have completed their periods on bail successfully, it
should be possible to fashion a community-based alternative which can keep them
out of prison after as well as before they are sentenced.
