A Good Try- but can it be Converted?

 

I met David Gauke a few years back when our sons were on opposite sides in a rugby match. I was impressed that he recalled our touchline conversation when we talked briefly again this January at a Sentencing Council seminar. He told the seminar that whatever else it might do, there was an arithmetical imperative his Sentencing Review’s recommendations should effect a sustained reduction in demand for prison places to prevent continuing recourse to the emergency measures we’ve seen over the last couple of years.

His wide ranging and largely welcome report is more a review of the execution of sentences than it is of sentencing. It says little about addressing the rampant sentence inflation which the first part of the review identified as the cause of the capacity crisis.

But it does contain important proposals which are estimated to result in a fall in the prison population of 9,800 places. Unfortunately, the report lacks the kind of detailed cost benefit analysis that generally accompanies legislation in the form of an Impact Assessment signed off by ministers. That’s a shame, particularly as the Lord Chancellor’s rejection of some of Gauke’s proposals will undoubtedly bring the 9,800 figure down. But by how much it’s hard to say.  

Take the proposal that short custodial sentences are used only in exceptional circumstances. Gauke reckons this will save 2,000 places. But a similar measure proposed by the last government in 2023 was estimated to save between only 200 and 1,000 places. The Lord Chancellor has described the Gauke scheme as “a presumption against custodial sentences of less than a year – in favour of tough community sentences.” The 2023 version involved a duty to suspend a prison sentence- a subtle but important distinction which may account for the difference in the assessments.  But without the detailed workings it’s impossible to say.

A larger reduction in prison places is expected from Gauke’s early release proposals. Unfortunately, the Lord Chancellor hasn’t accepted them in their entirety. For those serving Standard Determinate Sentences (SDS), Government plans to ditch an upper limit to the proportion of the sentence they serve in prison will eat into the 4,100 places that would be saved. Gauke wanted the more dangerous prisoners serving Extended Sentences to be able to earn a Parole hearing at the halfway point of their sentence. MoJ says no and they’ll have to continue to wait until two thirds has passed. So the 600 places that would have been saved presumably won’t be.

The government say they’ll “introduce a tougher adjudication regime so that bad behaviour in prisons is properly punished”. Under the earned release scheme, offences against discipline, such as engaging in any threatening, abusive or violent behaviour, or possessing unauthorised articles would result in the offender’s release point being pushed back. It’s not clear that the Review team took a tougher disciplinary regime into account when assessing the numbers of SDS prisoners who’ll qualify for release at the earliest point.

The Lord Chancellor told Parliament today that as things stand, they’ll be short of 9,500 places by 2028. Gauke’s certainly had a try at bridging the gap. But can it be converted?

 

 

 

 

Sentencing Review: Three Things to Look Out For

 

Unless something’s been kept under wraps, many of the broad recommendations of the Sentencing Review have already been trailed as has the Government’s likely response. The central elements seem to comprise reducing short jail terms, a new scheme of earned early release and stronger community sentences. Here’s what I’ll be looking out for tomorrow.

Short Sentences: Chalk or Gauke?

When he was Lord Chancellor six years ago, David Gauke saw a “a very strong case to abolish sentences of six months or less altogether, with some closely defined exceptions, and put in their place, a robust community order regime.” He didn’t get a chance to act on it but five successors on, Alex Chalk’s Sentencing Bill  would have introduced a presumption on the courts to suspend short sentences of 12 months’ custody or less.  The election intervened so will successor number six go for abolition or suspension and what will the upper limit be? Perhaps more than 12 months?

What will prisoners have to do to earn early release?

It’s been reported that those qualifying could spend a third of their jail term behind bars with a further third  at home subject to electronic monitoring and the final third on licence with a liability to recall. Those who don’t earn the extra freedom are likely to spend a half their sentence in prison. The proportions may turn out to be slightly different but the bigger issue is what to do to get out early?

One option is simply to reward good conduct, measured presumably by the avoidance of disciplinary sanctions or reaching and maintaining the enhanced level on the scheme of Incentives and Earned Privileges. While this looks straightforward, developing a fair decision making process will have challenges. Prison Inspectors said last year that “staff regularly failed to challenge poor behaviour on the wings. In some prisons, rules were broken with near impunity because leaders had not established clear boundaries, and drug testing and adjudication processes were not used effectively”.

Another, or additional option is a Texas style points system which gives credit for participation in purposeful activities such as work or education or more formal rehabilitation programmes  aimed at addressing offending behaviour.

Given the limited and variable access prisoners have to positive activities even in training prisons, this looks even more problematic.  The Chief Inspector told MPs last week that assessments of purposeful activity have been consistently the lowest scoring of their four healthy prison tests since 1982. Only two out of 32 closed prisons inspected in 2023-24 were rated good or reasonably good for purposeful activity. Questions of fairness arise if prisoners in those two jails can reach the threshold for release more easily than those in worse performing jails who simply don’t get the opportunities to accumulate the points needed to reach the threshold for release.

Whatever the scheme entails, the Prison Service will need to devise a fair, timely and efficient process for assessing eligibility. The Inspectorate reported last year that staff  shortages were impeding effective offender management and prisoners’ ability to work through their sentence plans. How will a Lord Chancellor very committed to equality before the law make sure prisoners have a level playing field?

Will community supervision be able to step up to the plate? 

The new arrangements will entail a welcome shift of emphasis away from imprisonment to the community. As well as the need for the spending review settlement to reflect this, there looks to be a specific problem with electronic monitoring, highlighted in a recent Channel 4 documentary.

Financial penalties have been levied on Serco every month since they took on the service on 1 May 2024 because of poor performance. It turns out that their proposal to run the tagging scheme was classed as an Abnormally Low Bid but eventually approved.

If the new arrangements are to work well, the government will need to ensure not only that the Probation Service is given the resources they need to do the job but that tagging is run effectively and efficiently. What will the government do to strengthen supervision in the community?

No doubt, the Review and response to it will raise many other questions; for example if and how the new release arrangements will interact with existing processes like Home Detention Curfew?  But given the capacity crisis, perhaps the biggest one of all is how many prison places the new arrangements are expected to save. I hope there is a detailed impact assessment alongside the government plans but I am not holding my breath.

Dutch Lessons

 

Prisons at bursting point, insufficient staff to run them and maintenance backlogs threatening to make them unusable. This isn’t the UK but the Netherlands. A country not long ago renting out its unused facilities to other countries is now having to consider putting mattresses in cells to increase its own capacity.

Delegates at the ICPA Research Symposium in Belfast heard senior officials from the Dutch Ministry of Justice and Security tell an all too familiar tale- prisons closed when numbers fell, sentences (particularly for drug offences) increasing in length and politicians loathe to spend the necessary financial and political capital needed to cope with the looming crisis let alone avert it.

Until now. The Dutch have embarked on developing a ten year strategy for a sustainable justice system- a kind of Gauke Review plus- looking not only at sentencing but at the drivers of crime, at public health and drug policies and at the shape of the correctional response that might be needed in the future. As the conference heard “the problem is too big for the prison system.” Delegates from England and Wales were left thinking if only we’d set up something like that.

The Dutch rate of imprisonment per hundred thousand of the population is still well under half what it is in England and Wales but like us the Netherlands is being forced to take some unpalatable short term measures.  These include using police cells and reopening some closed prison units.

In addition, there are currently 8,000 people sentenced to prison in the Netherlands who are at home. They are on a waiting list to serve their term when a space comes up.  

It’s not ideal in all sorts of ways but I’m surprised the so called prison queue has not been debated here as part of the plans to counter the prison capacity crisis which have been further laid out by the Lord Chancellor this week.

Could courts not be asked to keep out of prison all convicted offenders who have successfully spent their remand period in the community? If they do impose a custodial sentence, could it not be suspended, deferred, or postponed, depending on the circumstances?   

Perhaps Mr Gauke’s review, expected imminently, will propose it.